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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."